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BAGHDAD (SyriaNews) – Civil war costs Iraq’s economy billions of dollars, with the economy growing just 0.8 percent in the first quarter of the year, a rate lower than any other time since the end of the 2003 war with the United States, according to figures from the country’s central bank. Oil income is being diverted to fund the war in Iraq and its neighboring countries, according to the Central Bank, thanks in large part to production from Turkey’s northern shores, in the disputed region of Kurdistan.
Iraq’s economy shrank by nearly 20 percent last year, mainly due to a drop in oil production. Iraq produces about 3.4 million barrels of oil a day.
“Despite the gains made recently, the outlook for the Iraqi economy is gloomy and more still is needed to reduce dependency on the oil sector,” Hetmeke Simsek, a professor at the Middle East Centre for Human Rights and the University of Sussex, told Al Jazeera.
According to figures from the Central Bank, Iraq’s state expenditure grew by 1.5 percent in the first quarter of the year.
An oil-based economy
Iraq’s economy has long been based on oil income. War has made the sector more fragile, economists said.
“War has hit production at a time of low demand,” said Michael Serhan, regional chief economist at research firm IHS. “It has also made it difficult for the central bank to continue its interest rate hikes, given the current geopolitical environment.”
Iraqi state revenues have shrunk by 80 percent since 2008 as a result of the US-led invasion, according to estimates from the World Bank.
“The oil income used to make up for [the deficit],” said Simsek. “But if the war is not stopped or brought to a close, the state will have to increase taxes and we are already seeing a rise in inflation.”
Iraq has been thrown into the conflict over Kurdistan since the northern region voted to host Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum.
The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) oil-related revenues have fallen by 70 percent as a result of the war, according to the IHS.
According to IHS, the war also led to a 40 percent drop in the volume of crude oil exports, which were previously one of the
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